Now that the dust is settling on the amazing and historic end of this year’s baseball regular season, we can start looking ahead to what promises to be an exciting October, not only for baseball but also for trade policy. While many anticipate the FTA legislation to reach Congress sometime next week, those who have been following the situation for the past four years feel a little like Red Sox fans before 2004 or, worse yet Chicago Cubs Fans. Every time it appears that the FTAs are finally going to make it, something goes terribly wrong.
This week nearly all republican members of the house finance committee sent a letter to President urging him to submit the pending FTA’s. However, the White House is waiting for passage of TAA and has not been willing to submit the FTA’s until TAA is renewed. Despite Speaker Boehner’s assurance to President Obama that he will pass the FTA’s in tandem with GSP and TAA, the two are still at odds over the exact definition of “in tandem.”
There’s some pressure to pass the Korea FTA prior to the visit by President Lee Myung-bak on October 13, but the official dignitary visit may not be enough as there is talk about a China currency bill coming to the floor soon. That legislation seems to have plenty of support in the Senate but House leadership has kept their view silent for now. The worst fear for FTA advocates is that the China currency debate will create incendiary debates between the two parties, yet another rift between Obama and Boehner, and take away precious little time for the FTA to get approved before the end of this year. Keep in mind that come November, the super committee in charge of budget discussions will start presenting its deficit reduction proposals and this is certainly going to start taking precedence over the FTAs, especially since both issues will be handled by the same Congressional committees.
For those who are more optimistic, the White House could send the FTAs to Congress as soon as next week. After that, the FTAs would need to be marked up in the House Finance Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee; the latter will only do so with a 48-hour advanced notice. Once the bills are marked up, an additional 72- hour period must pass before they can be transmitted to the floor for a final vote. This could technically all happen in October, but it will require tremendous focus and effort on the part of lawmakers.
Needless to say the window to quickly pass the FTA’s quickly is closing fast. Even if disagreements over Chinese currency and congressional time constraints fail to derail the FTA’s, we are still left to wonder what else could possibly go wrong. Let’s just hope that by the end of October we can compare the FTAs to the resurging Rays or Cardinals, and not to the collapsing Red Sox or Braves…Play Ball!
